Astros to unveil Happ in opener with Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nobody expects new Houston Astros starter J.A. Happ to replace the traded Roy Oswalt, yet that is what the young left-hander must do tonight.

One day after getting dealt to the Astros in a deal that sent Oswalt to the Philadelphia Phillies, Happ will make a quick Houston debut this evening in the opener of a three-game series versus the Milwaukee Brewers at Minute Maid Park.

With Houston 17 games under .500 and 14 games out of first place in the National League Central, the Astros decided to look to the future on Thursday, sending the veteran Oswalt to the Phillies along with cash for Happ and a pair of minor league players. One of those minor leaguers, outfielder Anthony Gose, was then flipped to Toronto for highly-regarded first base prospect Brett Wallace.

"Obviously, I was a little shocked and a little surprised [Thursday], but I'm definitely looking on the positive," Happ told Houston's website. "I hope to be a part of their future and help turn things around there. It's nice to go to a team that wants you. I want to go down there and pitch well and see what happens."

Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 earned run average in 35 games (23 starts) last year, finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. He made two April starts before getting sidelined for over three months due to a forearm injury, returning on Sunday to face Colorado. The 27-year-old got a no-decision in his return after allowing three runs on four hits and four walks over five innings, giving him a 1-0 mark and 1.76 ERA on the season.

The left-hander has made just one career start at Minute Maid Park, throwing five scoreless innings of six-hit ball in a victory over the Astros, and is 1-0 with a 6.14 ERA lifetime versus the Brewers.

Oswalt, who waived a no-trade clause to make the deal happen, was scheduled to start tonight for the Astros, but he will instead be pitching with the Phillies. The former All-Star went 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA in 303 games (291 starts) over nine-plus seasons with Houston, leaving one win shy of matching Joe Niekro for the most in club history.

After an off day on Thursday, the Astros resume their nine-game homestand. They have split the first six matchups of the swing, taking two of three over the Cubs earlier in the week.

Houston has won all four of its series this year with Chicago after taking Wednesday's rubber match, 8-1. Carlos Lee had a pair of two-run homers and Bud Norris gave up just one unearned run over six innings.

Third baseman Chris Johnson went 1-for-4 at the plate to extend his hitting streak to 12 games, the longest by a Houston rookie since Julio Lugo's 14-game run in 2000.

Happ failed to catch a break tonight in regards to facing All-Star Milwaukee outfielder Corey Hart, who is expected to play for the first time in six games after missing time due to a sore right thumb and wrist. The slugger is batting .292 with 22 homers and 70 RBI this year.

Minus Hart on Wednesday, the Brewers dropped a rubber match with Cincinnati, 10-2. Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy both drove in a run for Milwaukee, while starter Chris Narveson allowed three runs over five-plus innings to take the loss.

"Narveson pitched five good innings and we had a rested bullpen, so that's why I played it that way," said Brewers manager Ken Macha. "If there's one consistency he's had, it's that he's had one bad inning in a lot of his starts. So that was the thought process, to not let it snowball."

Milwaukee has lost two in a row since a five-game win streak and hope that Manny Parra can earn his first victory since July 3 tonight.

The 27-year-old is 0-2 with an 8.82 ERA in three starts since that win. He was drilled for 10 runs over 5 1/3 innings of a loss to the Braves on July 18, but rebounded in a no-decision against the Nationals on Saturday. Parra allowed just two runs on four hits and three walks over six innings.

Parra is 3-7 with a 5.33 ERA this year and 4-3 with a 5.18 ERA in eight lifetime starts versus Houston. The left-hander got a no-decision against the club on June 28 after yielding four runs on seven hits and four walks over five frames of work.

The Brewers and Astros have split six games so far this year, with each meeting taking place in Milwaukee.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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