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07/20/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There is now just one team in the West with a perfect record, but their latest win looked far from perfect. The Saskatchewan Roughriders pulled another rabbit out of the hat in week three, this time storming back from a first half deficit to dominate in the final quarter against the Edmonton Eskimos.
Every other west team lost last week, meaning the Riders sit alone at first in the league. Calgary looked sloppy in a three-point loss to the Toronto Argonauts, particularly Henry Burris, who got picked off four times. Meanwhile. the BC Lions went out of their way to hold up to the CFL's image of a passing league with a mighty seven total rushing yards.
SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS
A fan can be forgiven if they thought they were watching a classic Alberta matchup between Calgary and Edmonton in week three. The Saskatchewan Roughriders donned burgundy and black in celebration of their centennial as a franchise, but looked an awful lot like the Stampeders in the process. Perhaps an unfamiliar look in Riderville, but the result of the game was not: The Riders won their third straight game, 24-20, and are the only team in the league with a perfect 3-0 record.
While getting the win was huge in an always tight division, the Riders need to work on getting out of the gates quicker. Against Edmonton, Saskatchewan was down 14-10 after the first half before coming alive in the fourth quarter, where they scored 11 unanswered points.
In the two weeks previous, the Roughriders put up 23 combined points over the first two quarters, while scoring 54 in the second halves.
Though it may take a while for Saskatchewan to get rolling, the team does perform best at the most crucial stages later in the game, so for now the Riders get a pass.
The Riders are on a high, but face their toughest opponent of the season when they travel to Calgary to take on the Stamps.
Offensive key for next game: Durant and the deep receiving corps get all the attention, but Wes Cates has been a big part of what Saskatchewan brings to the table. Calgary has shown tough defense against the rush, but in its one loss, they allowed Cory Boyd of the Argos to run for 142 yards. If Cates can find the wiggle room that Boyd found last week, the Riders will be able to keep the Stampeders on their toes and go 4-0.
Defensive key for next game: Calgary's Henry Burris has looked very sloppy so far this season, trying to force plays rather than go with the flow of what's developing in front of him. Burris has been picked off six times already, four more than any other quarterback, something the Riders should be able to exploit. With the likes of Luc Mullinder and Brent Hawkins pressuring Burris, the Riders could get some picks and really tighten their lead as best in the west.
Look ahead: The Roughriders face a tough opponent in Calgary this week, but can look forward to a home date with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. With the way the Riders' offense has been going - they lead the league in several categories, including touchdowns scored (12) and points per game (38.3) - it's entirely possible to improve to 5-0, provided they keep up their efficient play with the ball.
EDMONTON ESKIMOS
Edmonton fell to 0-3 for first time in 45 years in its loss against Saskatchewan. Certainly not what they planned to happen back in training camp, but then again, not many teams can predict experiencing two fourth quarter meltdowns in a row.
The Eskimos have yet to score a single point in the fourth quarter this season. Not a field goal, safety, or even a rouge: just a huge zero points for.
Combine that with allowing 26 points allowed in the final frame of the past two contests, and you not only have a recipe for disaster, but an entire home- cooked meal made for hungry opposing teams. And those teams aren't shy to have their fill.
The Riders were the latest team to feast on the Eskimos, capitalizing on two forced fumbles that halted any hopes for Edmonton's first win. Instead, the Riders scored 11 unanswered points against a bewildered Edmonton side.
A big reason for Edmonton's slow start is its inability to score touchdowns. Ricky Ray is getting the yards, but not when it counts the most, as he has just one touchdown pass all season.
It is not all his fault, however, as Edmonton dropped two catchable touchdown passes in its loss to the Riders.
While Edmonton came close against two of the best teams in the league, they need to figure out how to put points on the board if they want to get back in the thick of things.
Offensive key for next game: Though the game will be played in Manitoba, a struggling Winnipeg Blue Bombers club without their starting quarterback may just be what Edmonton needs to get in the win column. Ricky Ray should outclass Winnipeg's backup QB Steven Jyles, but needs to find the end zone - and for his receivers to catch the ball - to get his team on the right track. Ray's best option is Fred Stamps, who caught for an impressive 203 yards in their week three loss to the Roughriders.
Defensive key for next game: With Buck Pierce out of the lineup, Bombers running back Fred Reid will be called upon to carry the load. There's no telling how well backup QB Steven Jyles will perform in just his second career start, but there's a good chance that if the Eskimos shut down Reid, Winnipeg's offense will flounder for the second week in a row.
Look ahead: Edmonton's opportunity to take advantage of an injured Winnipeg side will be followed by two home games against BC and Toronto, respectively. This three-week stretch may make or break the Eskimos. Though a 0-3 start does not sit well with Edmonton fans, it is entirely possible to claw their way back into the race.
BC LIONS
BC was another team that could not get it going offensively, especially on the ground. Running back Jamal Robertson had one of the worst games of his career, rushing for just four yards on six carries. Worst of all, he gave up two fumbles, one of which led to a Montreal field goal.
Robertson did catch a TD pass for the Lions' lone major score, but that's not enough for one of the league's premier running backs.
Furthering BC's struggles is Casey Printers, who has yet to come close to finding the form that made him the Most Outstanding Player back in 2004.
Printers is a distant 7th overall in passing yards with 591, nearly 400 behind leader Darian Durant.
Though offense has been a major problem, the Lions have been decent defensively this season. They gave up just 10 points in their first game, and allowed only 16 against the defending Grey Cup champions in week three.
Giving up 37 points against the Riders in week two is certainly not something to brag about, but allowing just 13 points in the first half should have head coach Wally Buono pleased with what his team can do without the ball.
Offensive key for next game: At the beginning of the season, a date with the Toronto Argonauts would have been a probable win. But with the way the Argonauts have been able to pull out close wins, the Lions should not fall asleep on this resurgent franchise. Jamal Robertson will face his former team for the first time, and after a bad game last week, expect the running back to seek some redemption on a couple of fronts. If Robertson shows what he's capable of doing, the Argonauts are in trouble.
Defensive key of the game: Toronto's Cory Boyd has been getting better every game, and is a big reason behind their surprising 2-1 record. The Lions have to shut down Boyd, but also need to keep an eye out for Jeremaine Copeland. He is Toronto's best receiver, and after three so-so weeks, is due for a big game.
Look ahead: With a 1-2 record, BC can't afford to fall further behind. The Lions' next two games are on the road, but one is against the worst team of the past two seasons while the other is the last place Edmonton Eskimos. After dropping two at home, the Lions are seeking answers for a lot of question marks, but this relatively easy road trip might help shake the sputtering offense.
CALGARY STAMPEDERS
Henry Burris and the Stampeders may lead the league in time of possession, but they are also tops in turnovers. Burris's six interceptions are a telling statistic for his style of play right now: way too forced and risky, like a slow-footed baseball player trying to stretch a single into extra bases. Sure, the effort's there, but you're only hurting your team by getting called out.
Calgary took one too many outs last week in a three-point loss to Toronto, a game that was there for the taking. Calgary was up 24-15 heading into the fourth quarter, but two Burris interceptions, at a time where all Calgary had to do was eat up the clock and defend their lead, gave Toronto all the momentum.
Toronto deserves a lot of credit for its defense in the final quarter, but one suspects that if Burris played it a little safer, this wrap-up might be about how Calgary is one of two teams with a perfect record.
Offensive key to next game: Losing a heartbreaker to the Argonauts does not help a team's spirit when they have to face the league's best squad the following week. Given Durant's rise into one of the game's best quarterbacks, combined with Burris's propensity to throw, this game has the potential to be a shootout. In a game of who can outscore whom, Burris has to rein in his sloppy errors in order to win the battle.
Defensive key to the game: Calgary's defensive backs will have their hands full against the league's best all-around receiving corps. Cut Durant's flow downfield and the Stampeders will go a long way in slowing this offensive juggernaut.
Look ahead: Calgary begins a two-game homestand at the perfect time. The Stamps need to refocus in preparation for their biggest test of the season in the Riders, which will then be followed by a game with Winnipeg, which could still be without starting QB Buck Pierce. Both games can potentially be wins, but their performance against the Roughriders may go a long way in determining how close this team is to finding their Grey Cup-winning form of 2008.
<< Piniella to retire at the end of the season
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella has decided
to retire at the conclusion of the 2010 season.
Piniella is in his fourth season as Cubs manager. He guided the club to a
winning record in each of his fir
<< Jets to add six names to new Ring of Honor
Florham Park, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Jets announced on Tuesday
that six names associated with the franchise will be added to the club's new
Ring of Honor this upcoming season.
The initial class of inductees will include
<< Westermann to leave Schalke for Hamburg
Gelsenkirchen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Germany defender Heiko Westermann is
set to leave Schalke for Hamburg, according to Schalke coach Felix Magath.
Westermann missed the recent FIFA World Cup with injury and the 26-year-old
wants st
<< Juve's Iaquinta sidelined with thigh injury
Turin, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juventus striker Vincenzo Iaquinta will miss
nearly all of preseason training with a thigh injury, the Italian club said on
its website Tuesday.
Iaquinta was initially injured in the FIFA World Cup playing f
Petkovic advances in Austria >>
Bad Gastein, Austria (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion Andrea Petkovic of
Germany was among the first-round winners Tuesday at the Gastein Ladies tennis
tournament.
Petkovic, this year's top seed, cruised to a 6-4, 6-0 victory ove
Bulls pull off sign-and-trade for C.J. Watson >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls have acquired guard C.J.
Watson from Golden State in a sign-and-trade deal that netted the Warriors a
second-round draft pick.
An official Bulls blog on the team's website confirmed the
Defending champ Davydenko advances at Hamburg >>
Hamburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top seed and defending champion Nikolay
Davydenko advanced with an easy second-round victory on Tuesday at the German
Open Tennis Championships, on a day which saw nearly every other seeded player
fall.
Cubs recall P Stevens, option Atkins >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs promoted pitcher Jeff Stevens
from Triple-A Iowa on Tuesday.
The 26-year-old joins the big club for the third time this season and has
pitched to a 5.71 earned run average without recordi
Now, it's okay to call the league hypocritical when it releases injury reports, which players have told me only helps bettors. And it's okay to mutter something obscene when the league pretends gambling doesn't help drive TV ratings and fan interest and put money in owners' pockets. But when it supports other forms of gaming? Big Deal. The Bears should put an orange "C" on every deck of cards dealt at Harrah's in Joliet; the Eagles should slap their logo on roulette wheels at the Borgata in Atlantic City; the Dolphins should hold training camp at the El San Juan in Puerto Rico.
Seriously.
The NFL's problem, when it comes to the gambling world, isn't hypocrisy, it's worse: The bosses lack vision. That's why the league is picking unwinnable fights in Delaware and taking pot shots from critics after making smart sponsorship deals. Roger Goodell and his gang are acting and thinking locally rather than globally, which is rare for them, especially compared to their professional (and amateur) counterparts.
The NBA held its All Star game in Las Vegas and David Stern's kingdom didn't crumble (although the town did bring plenty of players to their knees.) I'd say it's 6 to 5 and pick 'em that Lebron will make a road swing through Sin City before his career is over.
Even the NCAA College Football Betting is more progressive on this issue than the NFL. Several years ago Rachel Newman Baker, college sports' gambling czar, opened a dialogue with Vegas bookmakers to learn about how they do business. She's visited Nevada sports books, studied their operations and listened to how they regulate action. Now she knows she can expect a call from bookmakers, who lose money when sports are fixed, if they think something sketchy is going on in NCAA games. She's not in favor of sports betting, but, as she once told me, "I know it's not going away, either."
The NFL can't seem to accept that. And until it can find peace with the idea, it'll get flack, even when it's right.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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