Howard, Magic put streak on line vs. Bulls

Basketball Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dwight Howard and the surging Orlando Magic shoot for their seventh straight win tonight in the conclusion of a three-game homestand versus the Chicago Bulls at Amway Arena.

Orlando is riding a six-game winning streak and improved to 2-0 on the residency with Tuesday's 113-87 drubbing of the Los Angeles Clippers behind 22 points and 15 rebounds from Howard, who posted his league-leading 51st double-double of the season. Howard had an NBA-best 69 double-doubles in 2007-08, and finished second in that category last season with 63.

"With the playoffs coming up, we just want to make sure we get ourselves prepared for what's ahead by challenging ourselves every night to get better," said Howard.

Jameer Nelson totaled 17 points with eight assists, Rashard Lewis chipped in 15 points and Vince Carter netted 13 for the Southeast Division-leading Magic, who have won five in a row at home and are 26-6 in central Florida in 2009-10.

The Magic are creeping up the Eastern Conference standings, and sit five games behind top-seeded Cleveland in the No. 2 spot.

Chicago has dropped five in a row and completed a winless four-game homestand with Tuesday's 132-108 decision to the Utah Jazz at the United Center.

Derrick Rose, who is averaging 26.6 points, 6.1 assists and 2.9 rebounds in his last six contests, led the Bulls with 25 points and 13 assists. Brad Miller had 20 points, while Luol Deng and Ronald Murray totaled 14 points apiece for Chicago, which is a game off the sixth postseason spot in the Eastern Conference. Toronto, Charlotte and Miami are all even for sixth, while the Bulls are on the outside looking in at the ninth spot.

"We played well enough offensively, but we can't control the paint right now," said Bulls head coach Vinny Del Negro.

The Bulls will open a four-game road trip Thursday against Orlando, Miami, Memphis and Dallas, and are 12-19 away from the Windy City this season. Back on January 15, Chicago owned a road record of 4-15 and have gone 8-4 as the visitor since. Deng (calf) will miss Thursday's game, while Miller is probable with a thumb injury. Miller is posting 16.5 ppg in his last four outings.

The 2009-10 series between Orlando and Chicago is tied at a game apiece, but the Magic have won 10 of 13 and 11 of the last 15 meetings. The Bulls have lost four straight and five of their last six at Orlando.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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