Player of the 3/4 Year

Golf Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Can you believe that the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin four weeks from Thursday?

You probably can - you understand time at this point in your life - but the regular season in golf is almost over. Do we have a legitimate Player of the Year at this point?

No folks, we do not.

We can pare the list down to six, but the bigger story is that none of those six is named after a cartoon flake pitchman.

Tiger Woods won Player of the Year in a vote of his peers 10 times. Since 1997, three guys other than Tiger have won this award. In average years, Woods still brings home the hardware.

Now he's nowhere on the radar. Amazing what one accident that's never been fully explained can do. Woods hasn't won all year and truthfully, never threatened the top of the leaderboard. His best finishes are two fourth-place ties and they were at majors. His top-fives in majors notwithstanding, Woods doesn't belong in this race.

Of course, he could get into it very quickly.

Woods has the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational on tap in a few weeks and he's only won that seven times. The PGA Championship is the week after and Woods has enjoyed small doses of success in major championships.

So who does that leave?

Obviously major champions belong in the conversation, but two won't be a part of ours. Masters winner Phil Mickelson will be.

U.S. Open winner Graeme McDowell stated at the British Open that he would join the PGA Tour for the remainder of 2010. Even if we took into account his PGA Tour work as a non-member this year, he tied for sixth at the WGC-CA Championship and didn't finish inside the top 25 in five other starts in the U.S.

British Open champion Louis Oosthuizen was amazing in his epic win at St. Andrews, but he's not a member of the PGA Tour, so you could just as easily vote for Nicklaus, Palmer, Popeye, me or your uncle Hal.

The other choices are two-time winners this year on tour. That group is Ernie Els, Jim Furyk, Steve Stricker and Justin Rose.

We are going to bounce Furyk and Stricker. Furyk won twice early in the season, but missed the cut in two majors and his only top 10 since mid-April was a tie for 10th at the Memorial.

It's a shame Stricker gets bounced from consideration, but he hurt his shoulder around the Masters and missed almost two months. That kind of time off hurts your overall score.

Rose is an interesting case. He's probably the hottest player in golf right now, with two wins since June, but he wasn't qualified for the Masters or U.S. Open, so I have a hard time giving Player of the 3/4 Year to a guy whose early season didn't get him into the first two majors.

Els won back-to-back starts at the CA-Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational and has a tie for 18th at Augusta. He should've won his third U.S. Open and he missed the cut at St. Andrews.

The Big Easy has made it look easy at times in 2010. Els has six top 10s on tour this year, nine top-25s and is the leader on the FedEx Cup points list.

But this vote goes to Mickelson.

Lefty won a major, so that right there gets him an extra nod. Mickelson, like Els, had a great chance at the U.S. Open, but Pebble Beach swallowed him up on Sunday.

Mickelson has missed only one cut on tour this year to Els' three, and Els' have all come in his last five starts. Els' two wins came before the calendar turned to April, but he does have a strong case.

Just not as strong as Mickelson's.

On top of the Masters win, Mickelson was the runner-up at Quail Hollow, and top five in both the U.S. Open and Memorial. But when it comes down to it, the difference is that major title.

Professional golf is defined by major championships, and always has been. A Masters victory is just as good as two very quality PGA Tour victories. With records being equal, a major is worth two tour wins and that's why the Player of the 3/4 Year is Phil Mickelson.

Subject to change in the next four weeks.

RANDOM THOUGHTS

- In case you were wondering, and you probably weren't, the reason for my column this week is that I'm on vacation next week.

- Cell phones will be allowed at the Wyndham Championship, as long as they are on silent. This won't go well.

- As I tweeted earlier in the week, Corey Pavin is meeting with Tiger at the PGA Championship about his interest in the Ryder Cup. My statement if I was Pavin would be this, "Love to have ya, bro, but if not, oh well." It's proven the Americans can win without him and if he doesn't want to be here, the message should be get yourself together and we'll see you in 2012. I've always believed that it's foolish to think a team would be better without Woods, but no sense in him coming to Wales without the right attitude.

- Movie moment - Caught a movie called "The Invention of Lying." It's written, directed by and starring Ricky Gervais, who I would laugh at even if he was reading my obituary, but this didn't work. It's a new classification of movie we'll call, "Great concept, flawed execution."

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Betting Football

NFL Football Betting Online

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

SPORTS BETTING: NFL Football Sportsbook Betting

NFL owners, already life's biggest winners, want to try their luck with the lottery.


That was the news out of their meetings last week, where team bosses voted unanimously to allow stamping state and local lottery tickets with franchise logos, if, ahem, any governments wanted to do a deal.

A shocker: Within days the Pats announced they'd be sponsoring the Massachusetts state lottery, the Skins said they'd slap their sticker on Virginia scratch-offs and the Ravens admitted they were talking to Maryland lottery bosses. In all likelihood, it won't be long before every team is a presenting sponsor of scratch-offs or just plain old pick fives. "The change in policy was approved 32-0," said NFL spokesman Greg Aiello. "So you can expect to see more deals soon."

It's a branding opportunity too big for the owners to ignore, and one a couple of dozen baseball franchises have enjoyed for years. The fact the NFL has been slower to act than those slack-brained Seligites is indicative of its complicated relationship with all forms of gambling. Consider this: Last Thursday, as the Pats and the Redskins finalized their new lottery deals, a lawyer representing the NFL argued before Delaware's Supreme Court that the state's newly signed sports betting law should be repealed.

The NFL betting is the face of opposition to sports gambling . And as much as it would like to share that responsibility with other leagues, that's not going to happen as long as more than 40% of all money legally wagered on games is bet on football. That's why the Brewers can do a multi-million dollar deal with a local casino, or the Celtics can make their own pact with the Mass lottery, and the response is, "Sweet, let's play." But when the NFL does it the stakes are higher, and everyone from NPR's Frank Deford to the Associated Press to the guys blogging at Deadspin will line up to play gotcha.

So I asked Aiello, who surely knew there'd be piling on, how the league can rail against being bait for sports bettors, then allow its franchises to be just that for lotteries, the most insidious and addictive form of gambling around. He emailed me this response: "We are not moral crusaders. NFL personnel are permitted to engage in legal forms of gambling, except for betting on NFL games. We are making a distinction here between the spread of gambling on the outcome of our games and supporting state lottery scratch-off games, that have nothing to do with the outcome of our games."

Here's where I should rip him. But, the thing is, he's right. Not to get Obama on you, but this is a complicated, nuanced issue. As much as lotteries are considered a tax on the poor, the NFL isn't a socially obligated government program -- it's just a business. Scratch-off's help the bottom line, sports betting doesn't. Now, it's okay to call the league hypocritical when it releases injury reports, which players have told me only helps bettors … But when it supports other forms of gaming? Big Deal.

Now, it's okay to call the league hypocritical when it releases injury reports, which players have told me only helps bettors. And it's okay to mutter something obscene when the league pretends gambling doesn't help drive TV ratings and fan interest and put money in owners' pockets. But when it supports other forms of gaming? Big Deal. The Bears should put an orange "C" on every deck of cards dealt at Harrah's in Joliet; the Eagles should slap their logo on roulette wheels at the Borgata in Atlantic City; the Dolphins should hold training camp at the El San Juan in Puerto Rico.

Seriously.

The NFL's problem, when it comes to the gambling world, isn't hypocrisy, it's worse: The bosses lack vision. That's why the league is picking unwinnable fights in Delaware and taking pot shots from critics after making smart sponsorship deals. Roger Goodell and his gang are acting and thinking locally rather than globally, which is rare for them, especially compared to their professional (and amateur) counterparts.

The NBA held its All Star game in Las Vegas and David Stern's kingdom didn't crumble (although the town did bring plenty of players to their knees.) I'd say it's 6 to 5 and pick 'em that Lebron will make a road swing through Sin City before his career is over.

Even the NCAA College Football Betting is more progressive on this issue than the NFL. Several years ago Rachel Newman Baker, college sports' gambling czar, opened a dialogue with Vegas bookmakers to learn about how they do business. She's visited Nevada sports books, studied their operations and listened to how they regulate action. Now she knows she can expect a call from bookmakers, who lose money when sports are fixed, if they think something sketchy is going on in NCAA games. She's not in favor of sports betting, but, as she once told me, "I know it's not going away, either."

The NFL can't seem to accept that. And until it can find peace with the idea, it'll get flack, even when it's right.

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