Union need to eliminate mistakes Real soon

Soccer Betting Lines

05/07/2010 - Sandy, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Union have had a player ejected in the first half of three of their five games, so its not surprising the MLS expansion club has just one win this season entering Saturday's match at Real Salt Lake.

When the Union have managed to keep all 11 players on the field ("Ideally we'd like to keep eleven men on the field," Philadelphia's Alejandro Moreno said), they've committed costly mistakes instead.

Philadelphia lost Toni Stahl to a red card in the 40th minute of a 2-0 loss at Seattle Sounders FC in its first game, had Danny Califf sent off in a 2-1 loss to Toronto FC, and Stefan Miglioranzi was sent off in last week's 3-1 loss to the Los Angeles Galaxy.

Philadelphia won its lone match against D.C. United, 3-2, but goalkeeper Chris Seitz made a mistake in that match led to a United goal. In a 2-1 loss at Red Bull New York, Michael Orozco gave away the winning goal on a penalty kick for a handball in the area.

Philadelphia will try to eliminate both problems at Rio Tinto Stadium against the defending MLS champions.

"Of course, we didn't expect to be able to start with five wins. Of course, we believed that the way we will compete and play on the field, would bring the results," Philadelphia coach Peter Nowak said.

Nowak's club has scored in its last four matches, and 17-year-old rookie Jack McInerney scored his first MLS goal against L.A. Union striker Sebastien Le Toux, who has four of the club's six goals, missed that game and McInerney may be in line for his first start.

Union assistant coach John Hackworth said Le Toux was progressing "faster than normal," but his status for this week was still uncertain.

"We want to be cautious," Hackworth said about Le Toux's knee sprain, "because this is one of those injuries that if you come back too early, you can have other problems."

Philadelphia has lost its last three, and has dropped all four of its games on the road. Seitz and the Union's defense, anchored by Califf and Orozco, hasn't been as strong as thought before the season, allowing 2.2 goals per game.

Seitz joined the Union from Real in the expansion draft, and he may be playing for his starting job against his former team.

Midfielder Javier Morales leads Real with three goals, while Robbie Findley is the top assist man with two. Morales has missed two games because of injuries, but he will likely play against the Union.

Real continues to be one of the better home teams in MLS, and has a draw and a win in its two games in Utah this season.

RSL coach Jason Kreis, who is still trying to get his team in top form, thinks Philadelphia has a strong team that will get better as the season continues.

"I still think they've got the right pieces. They've got a very good coach. I think they have what it takes to be a good team this year," Kreis said.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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